Research
For a complete list of publications, see the CV. Also available on Google Scholar and ORCID.
Selected Publications
Environmental and Resource Economics, 88(9), pp. 2319–2330, 2025
Abstract
The current US administration’s actions could undermine academic freedom and environmental research, posing significant challenges not only domestically but also globally. This commentary provides a European perspective on the consequences of these developments for scientific inquiry, data availability, and evidence-based policymaking. While our US colleagues document the direct harms within the United States, we emphasize how European researchers and institutions can respond constructively. We discuss strategies for mitigating the impact of reduced US leadership in environmental policy and research – reflected in reduced federal support for research, rollback of environmental regulations, and weakened international engagement – including strengthening transatlantic collaboration, safeguarding open data, and advancing independent research. Ultimately, we argue that Europe has a critical role to play in sustaining scientific rigor and policy relevance in the face of political disruptions abroad.
Land Markets Anticipate Future Regulatory Boundary Changes
Environmental and Resource Economics, 88(3), pp. 589–630, 2025
Abstract
Environmental policies vary across space, and a growing body of empirical research compares land prices across administrative boundaries to estimate the causal effects of local policies. However, this approach can be confounded if the market anticipates the boundaries may change and land prices respond accordingly. We propose a way to separately identify the effect of local policy and the market’s beliefs that boundaries may change, and we apply this approach to Canadian land prices and wildlife protection zones in Alberta. We find that anticipation matters: market expectations that land will become protected reduces land prices by nearly one-quarter, and empirical analysis that omits anticipation underestimates the cost of regulation by one-third.
Quota consolidation in Norwegian coastal fisheries
Environmental and Resource Economics, 87(5), pp. 1295–1326, 2024
Abstract
Balancing the trade-off between economic efficiency and social objectives has been a challenge for natural resource managers under rights-based management. While the actual prioritization should be guided by social preferences, the mechanisms and consequences of the quota transfer system need to be well understood. We investigate the effects of the quota transfer scheme implemented in the Norwegian coastal cod fishery in 2004. This is a small-scale fishery that has traditionally been important for employment in the northern part of Norway. Using vessel-level quota registry data, we estimate the effect of quota trading on vessel exit using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits variation in implementation timing between regulatory groups. In addition, we describe the outcome of quota consolidation with descriptive statistics. Our results confirm that the quota transfer scheme accelerates the exit of vessels from the fishery by at least 5% points in the short run. The descriptive analysis reveals great heterogeneity in both the size and geographic location of exiting vessels, suggesting that the scheme has distributional impacts. While the policy change has the expected effects in the short run, our results suggest that the implications of consolidation last longer. This has implications for policymakers trying to balance economic efficiency and social objectives of rational fishery management.
The future of wild-caught fisheries: Expanding the scope of management
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16(2), pp. 241–261, 2022
Abstract
In recent years, the approach to wild-caught fisheries management has expanded beyond traditional single-fishery management. This article examines potential market failures within the fisheries sector that may arise because of a failure to account for key features of wild-caught fisheries and that can be addressed by an expanded scope. These market failures include multiple species caught together, multiple fisheries targeting the same stock, and other ecological and socioeconomic interconnections within ecosystems. We also examine market failures that may arise when external factors such as climate change and species invasions are not considered in fisheries management policy or if policies do not consider multisector use of seascapes, linkages between water pollution and fisheries, and market failures that cut across fisheries and nonfishery sectors and involve the underprovision of publicly available data and a lack of information sharing along the supply chain. We find that policies that address these market failures typically have distributional effects; that is, there will be winners and losers, even if aggregate efficiency increases. We conclude that research and policy design need to explicitly consider equity-efficiency trade-offs when seeking to address market failures, and we propose policy and research priorities that support the sustainability of wild-caught seafood.
The Future of Food from the Sea
Nature, 2020
Abstract
Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably (FAO 2018). Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services (Olsen 2011; Foley et al. 2005, 2011; Mbow et al. 2019; Amundson et al. 2015). As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean—wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture—to estimate ‘sustainable supply curves’ that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21–44 million tons by 2050, a 36–74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12–25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand.
Innovation and Site Quality: Implications for the Timing of Investments in Renewable Energy
Energy, 148, pp. 1173-1180, 2018
Abstract
We study the optimal sequence of investment in renewable energy when technology improves over time and the productivity of deployed capital differs with site quality. Our perspective is that of a price- and technology-taking individual or firm. We begin with a model where the price of output produced with the technology is a known constant and technology improves according to a known differential equation. We specify an optimization problem that allows for the solution of the optimal date of initial investment and the dates for optimal replacement. We then develop models where output price evolves according to geometric Brownian motion and technology evolves deterministically or stochastically, with up-jumps (breakthroughs). The possibility of breakthroughs will further delay initial investment compared to the model where technology evolves deterministically. Our analysis is relevant for the initial investment in renewable energy (wind or solar) and determining when and where to replace capital that is inefficient relative to current technology.
The Cost of Endangered Species Protection: Evidence from Auctions for Natural Resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 81, pp. 174-192, 2017
Abstract
This paper examines the effect that endangered species regulation has on natural resource development. Specifically, we use data from competitive auctions to estimate the effect that land-use regulation protecting endangered caribou in the Canadian province of Alberta has on the price producers pay for the right to extract oil. We exploit a regression discontinuity design to evaluate how prices differ along regulation boundaries that constrain resource development. The auction format and the regulation discontinuity allow us to measure the total cost of the regulation. We find that producers pay 24% less on average for oil leases that are regulated and that the total net present value cost of the regulation exceeds $1.15 billion for leases sold between 2003 and 2012, all of which is borne by the government. In spite of these costs, the populations of endangered caribou remain in widespread decline.
The Long Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 119(3), pp. 733-767, 2017
Abstract
About 40 percent of US corn is now used to produce biofuels, which are used as substitutes for gasoline in transportation. In this paper, we use a Ricardian model with differential land quality to show that world food prices could rise by about 32 percent by 2022. About half of this increase is from the biofuel mandate and the rest is a result of demand-side effects in the form of population growth and income-induced changes in dietary preferences, from cereals to meat and dairy products. However, aggregate world carbon emissions would increase, because of significant land conversion to farming and leakage from lower oil prices.
From fossil fuels to renewables: The role of electricity storage
European Economic Review, 99, pp. 113-129, 2017
Abstract
Electricity storage represents a solution to curb carbon emissions by enabling more use of intermittent renewable energy. Our goal is to empirically analyze the determinants of innovation in electricity storage and its role in fostering technological innovations in renewable and conventional electricity generation. Using a global firm-level data set of electricity patents from 1963 to 2011, we find that better electricity storage promotes innovation not only in renewable energy but also in conventional technologies. Specifically, our estimates show that an additional storage patent increases the probability to apply for patents in renewable energy and efficiency-improving fossil fuel technologies two years from now by 1.09% and 0.65%, respectively. This implies that improved electricity storage technologies can boost the energy efficiency of conventional, fossil fuel-fired power plants as well as increase the use of renewable electricity. Thus, the ability of electricity storage to curb carbon emissions depends on: the competitiveness of renewable energy against conventional electricity generation, and conventional power generation mix as storage increases fossil-fuel efficiency and reduces ramping costs.
The Trade-off between Intra- and Intergenerational Equity in Climate Policy
European Economic Review, 69, pp. 40-58, 2014
Abstract
This paper focuses on two equity dimensions of climate policy, intra- and intergenerational, and analyzes the implications of equity preferences on climate policy, and on the production and consumption patterns in rich and poor countries. We develop a dynamic two-region model, in which each region suffers from global warming, but also has an inequality aversion over current consumption allocations. Inequality aversion generally lifts the consumption path of the poor region, while the rich region must take a greater share of the climate burden. Furthermore, with inequality aversion, the optimal climate policy generally leads to higher investment in clean capital in the North and in dirty capital in the South, thereby allowing the South to pollute more and develop faster. The optimal policy may even require the poor region to increase emissions relative to the uncoordinated Business-as-Usual case. Introducing local pollution and transfers confirm the main results.
Exploration and Development of U.S. Oil and Gas Fields, 1955-2002
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, pp. 891 - 908, 2011
Abstract
We study the exploration and development of oil and gas fields in the U.S. over the period 1955–2002. We make four contributions to explain the economic evolution of the oil and gas industry during this period. First, we derive a testable model of the dynamics of competitive oil and gas field exploration and development. Second, we show how to empirically distinguish Hotelling scarcity effects from effects due to technological change. Third, we test these hypotheses using statewide panel data of exploration and development drilling. We find that the time paths of exploration, development and total wells drilled are dominated by Hotelling scarcity effects. Finally, we offer an explanation for why fixed costs from exploration can make the contracting equilibrium in the mineral rights market efficient.
Annual Review of Resource Economics, 1, pp. 645-663, 2009
Abstract
Many countries have actively encouraged the production of biofuels as a low-carbon alternative to the use of fossil fuels in transportation. To what extent do these trends imply a reallocation of scarce land away from food to fuel production? This paper critically reviews the small but growing literature in this area. We find that an increase in biofuel production may have a significant effect on food prices and, in certain parts of the world, in speeding up deforestation through land conversion. However, more research needs to be done to examine the effect of newer generation biofuel technologies that are less land intensive as well as the effect of environmental regulation and trade policies on land-use patterns.
Regime Switching in a Fishery with Stochastic Stock and Price
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51(2), pp. 231-241, 2006
Abstract
A bioeconomic model of a fishery subject to stock uncertainty and price uncertainty is developed. With a linear control model, the optimal harvest policy is a bang–bang approach to the optimal stock level, where one harvests either at minimum or full capacity. It is assumed that changing the harvest rate is subject to a switching cost. In this case it is shown that there are two switching curves in stock-price space, one for entering and one for leaving the fishery. Numerical methods are used to characterise the optimal switching policy for the fishery.
Working Papers
Compliance, Environmental Regulation, and Quota Markets
Revise and resubmit at Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2026)
Abstract
Market-based instruments are widely promoted for their efficiency in achieving environmental goals, but their effectiveness depends on enforcement and compliance, which are often imperfect. We develop a theoretical model in which agents face both technological standards and quota regulations, with the possibility of non-compliance with both at the risk of fines. Within this model, we investigate how intrinsic motivation to comply with different regulations affects investment behavior in quota markets. We find that a greater willingness to invest in quotas can result from either a strong intrinsic motivation to comply with quota regulations or a weak motivation to comply with technological standards. To test these predictions, we use survey data and incentivized economic experiments with Norwegian fishers. The empirical results confirm the theory predictions: Fishers who find technological violations less acceptable tend to invest less in quotas, while those who disapprove of quota violations tend to buy more quotas. These findings highlight the critical role of compliance attitudes for quota market behavior and offer insights for designing more efficient environmental regulations.
How Are ITQ Prices Discovered?
SNF Working Paper No. 09/25. SNF – Centre for Applied Research at NHH, 2025
Abstract
We study price formation in newly created catch share markets, focusing on how relative prices received by small and large quota holders evolve as markets mature. Using transaction-level data from New Zealand individual transferable quota fisheries, we document substantial and persistent price discounts for smaller sellers in permanent quota sales. In contrast, price differences in lease markets are smaller and less systematic over time. Event-time analyses show that seller-size-related price gaps remain pronounced in sales markets well beyond program inception, while lease markets exhibit weaker and less stable patterns. These findings highlight the role of contract structure in shaping price dispersion in decentralized resource markets.
Distributional Outcomes and Governance in Marine Fisheries: A Review of the Economics Literature
SNF Working Paper No. 10/2025. SNF – Centre for Applied Research at NHH, 2025
Abstract
Distributional consequences are central to fisheries governance, yet they remain underdeveloped in much of the economics literature. While reforms such as rights-based management, quota allocation, and spatial regulation have been widely studied with respect to efficiency and stock recovery, comparatively little attention has been paid to how these policies redistribute income, rents, rights, and risks across heterogeneous resource users. This paper provides a structured review of the economics literature on distributional outcomes in marine capture fisheries, identifying methodological patterns, data limitations, and directions for future research.
The Efficiency Costs of Transfer and Consolidation Constraints: Evidence from a Resource Market
SNF Working Paper No. 7/2025. SNF – Centre for Applied Research at NHH, 2025
Abstract
Property rights-based management is widely used to improve efficiency in natural resource sectors such as fisheries. In catch share programs, harvesting rights are allocated to individuals or firms and traded in markets, with prices reflecting both economic fundamentals and regulatory constraints. This paper analyzes how restrictions on transferability and consolidation affect quota values in a large Norwegian catch-share fishery. Using a novel dataset linking vessel and quota transactions, the study estimates a hedonic pricing model that recovers the capitalized value of quota rights and quantifies the efficiency costs associated with consolidation caps and geographic restrictions.
SNF Working Paper No. 11/2025. SNF – Centre for Applied Research at NHH, 2025
Abstract
This paper examines how local firm size within a biologically connected production area affects environmental effort in the presence of spatial externalities. In Norwegian salmon farming, sea lice disperse between farms via oceanic currents; delousing at one farm therefore benefits neighboring farms. We develop a conceptual framework in which delousing efforts are strategic substitutes, predicting that farms belonging to firms with larger shares of local production will undertake more mitigation, as they internalize a larger portion of the spillover benefits. Using farm-level weekly microdata from 2012–2021, we construct measures of firm biomass share within biologically relevant distances and relate these shares to delousing treatment probability. Consistent with the model’s prediction, the results reveal a positive relationship between local share and mitigation effort. Robustness checks across buffer distances, model specifications, and pre/post policy change subsamples confirm stability. The results highlight how spatial industry structure shapes incentives for environmental management and suggest that aligning production rights with the spatial extent of externalities could achieve environmental goals through private incentives rather than direct regulation.